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CJ Stroud QB – Scouting Report – USA Informing

CJ Stroud draft scouting card (reference/term key under scouting notes)

Scouting Notes

  • Great athletic build and prototypical size, but surprisingly immobile relative to Quarterbacks of similar stature.
  • Deep ball accuracy and touch are unreal, CJ Stroud dropped it into the bread basket often.
  • Not great all year against pressure, except for the final game.
  • Experienced an odd back-step in anticipation. In 2021 he often made great anticipatory throws, but in 2022 he seemed to always wait for the open receiver.
  • Despite having many questions all year, his game against Georgia was elite. He showed poise, read the field well, was shockingly mobile, great decisions, etc. He quashed nearly every concern you could have about him. Questions will remain whether that is enough.

Short Summary

Despite being highly recruited, CJ Stroud was never able to fully establish himself as the next big things. Many concerns marred his scouting reports of him, and until his final game of him as a Buckeye, nothing changed.
As written above, his Georgia game was amazing. He did everything every scout ever wanted him to do, and more. He showed traits and abilities that we previously thought he flatly didn’t have.

That’s enough for most to say he’s capable, but I am a little more skeptical. His stock of him rose significantly from that game in my eyes, and I see him in a much better light, but I do not think one game is enough to completely change 2 full seasons of the opposite.

Frankly, however, I believe Stroud’s issue is a deeper one. As explained in my QB Scouting Guide, to be a great NFL Quarterback you must have elite traits of the QB Archetype that you fit into. In Stroud’s case, that’s very difficult. He clearly is not a Runner, and his immobility is enough to say he is not a Hybrid either. He could potentially become a Hybrid, but he would need to take massive steps towards becoming a more mobile Quarterback. That usually doesn’t happen.
That leaves Surgeon, which seems fitting, but he lacks traits that are necessary for a successful Surgeon QB. Anticipation and accuracy are at the top of the list, and he isn’t elite at either of those. Additionally, his pocket presence of him is up-and-down.

All that being said, CJ Stroud should make a good NFL Quarterback, but I don’t believe he will ever be at the top of the NFL, and he does have a chance to disappoint. He’s good enough and exciting enough that I hope he proves me wrong, but I’m not convinced.

I expect him to show flashes of potential at times of great play, but he will ultimately likely never be considered a big-contract franchise guy.

Scouting Card Key

  • percentage numbers in the Player Info and Combine Stats sections – This refers to the percentile that number belongs to among all players at his position, going back nearly a decade.
  • QB Type – The QB Archetype (one of Surgeon, Runner, and Hybrid), as detailed in my QB Scouting Guide.
  • GP –Games Played
  • INTs –Interceptions
  • GOVERNESS – Air Yards per attempt. I always choose this stat over Y/A, since Yards per attempt can be inflated by great yards after catch plays, which are mostly unrelated to QB play.
  • BTT and BTT% – Big Time Throw and Big Time Throw Rate. The rate is how many of those you completed relative to how many passes you’ve completed in total.
  • TWP and TWP% – Turnover Worthy Plays. These are plays deemed by PFF Scouts and Graders to be plays that should have been a turnover, but by circumstance (a dropped Interception for example) it didn’t end up as one.
  • adj. Comp. % – Adjusted Completion percentage. This assumes all passes that should have been caught were caught, therefore not penalizing a Quarterback too much for dropped passes.
  • TTT –Time to Throw. This stat doesn’t say much about the QB play, but it gives you an insight into the situation in which a player was playing. Certain players get cushioned and never hit in college, then falter after a few NFL hits.
  • P2S% – Pressure to Sack rate. This stat measures what percent of a player’s pressured plays ended in a sack. This stat helps quantify pocket mobility and pocket presence.
Credit

Advanced stats – pff.com
Scouting card template / idea – Jordan Pun @Texans_Thoughts

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