Buckle up Brewers fans and enjoy it while you can because this could be Corbin Burnes’s final season in Milwaukee. This is the unfortunate reality baseball has with small market teams being unable to retain their star players and fan favorites. The Milwaukee Brewers currently have two years of club control remaining on Burnes’s contract before he is eligible for free agency. Burnes also just lost an arbitration case straining his relationship with the team. Burnes has even pinned some blame on the Brewers for not coming to him about an extension. Pending on where Milwaukee is in the postseason hunt, I believe this could be his final season with the Brewers.
An Accomplished Two Seasons
In the past two seasons, Corbin Burnes has arguably been the Brewer’s best pitcher in a long time. Despite poor run support for Brewer’s offense during this span, he’s compiled a record of 23-13, an ERA of 2.71, 477 strikeouts, and only walking 91 hitters. Burnes also led the league in earned run average and strikeouts in 2021 and 2022 respectively. He also won the NL Cy Young award in 2021 and has been an all-star for the past two seasons as well. Prior to last year with Burnes, the Brewers had gone to the postseason four years in a row. In seven postseason pitching appearances including one start, he has registered a sparkling 1.20 ERA with 17 strikeouts. Seasons like that often command very large contracts on the open market.
This offseason, Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers went to arbitration. This was something they were able to avoid last offseason. This time, the Brewers and Burnes were a little less than $750,000 apart. The Brewers won the case which allowed them to pay Burnes $10.01 million instead of the $10.75 million he desired. If the Brewers keep Burnes through this season, they would most likely go through the arbitration process again. However, given his rising salary from him and the Brewer’s less likely to re-sign him, it may make sense to just trade him now.
The Brewers Have Been In This Position Before
The Brewers are no strangers to trading players they have been under team control for two more years. This past trade deadline, they traded star closer, Josh Hader to the Padres for a slew of players and prospects. It should be noted that the Brewers were in first place in the NL Central at the time of the deal. Then general manager David Stearns made this trade knowing that he would be unable to retain him in two years. He also wanted to get something in return for Hader instead of just losing him in free agency for nothing. If the Brewers would’ve waited another year, they would have lost a lot of leverage. This would’ve most likely made the return not as big.
A Similar Situation To The Last Trade Deadline
Like Hader, Burnes has two years of club control remaining before he hits free agency. Depending on where the Brewers are in the postseason hunt, it might be tempting to trade him. With two years left on his contract, the Brewers can command a giant haul of prospects and players. The Brewers would have all the leverage in the deal if they were to trade him this year. Their minor league system is currently ranked 15thit wouldn’t hurt for them to add more promising prospects.
The Unfortunate Economics Of A Small Market Team
The Brewers are facing an unfortunate reality that other small-market teams face, they can’t retain most of their top talent. Corbin Burnes has developed into one of the best pitchers in baseball and his value from him will most likely be out of the Brewer’s price range. The Brewers know this and might be more attracted to getting a big return than losing leverage or getting nothing. For the Brewers to keep Burnes another season, they have to be certain that they can win a championship. With the current team they have built, I don’t see them winning the World Series this season. With Matt Arnold now running baseball operations, anything is on the table. Enjoy seeing Corbin Burnes pitch in Milwaukee while you can because his days of him as a Brewer appear to be numbered.
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