June and July are tough months for college football fans. The Spring Ball is over, but the regular season seems like it’s still a long way off. Fortunately, Las Vegas is kind enough to give us something to think about and discuss: Win Totals.
It is a unique year for the PAC-12. USC and UCLA are about to disappear. An upcoming media rights deal may or may not prompt more departures. The playoff expansion is just around the corner. And oh yeah, the actual football played in the conference last season was the best in half a decade.
I’ll be reviewing the win totals from all of the “Power Five” conferences over the next month, and we’ll talk about these teams in more detail on The South Endzone podcast as we go. So, without further ado, here are the Win Totals predictions for the PAC-12.
*All win totals listed are from the Fanduel Sportsbook; other outlets may have slightly different win totals or betting odds*
USC Trojans (9.5)
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USC is one good defense away from being a bona fide contender for the CFP title. Offensively, they averaged 41 per game last year and look to be just as good in 2023. Caleb Williams is the best player in college football and he’s surrounded by talent. Arizona transfer Dorian Singer (1,105 yards, 6 TDs) joins Mario Williams (631 yards, 5 TDs) and Tahj Washington (785 yards, 6 TDs) to form a lethal passing corps. Austin Jones (705 yards, 5 TDs) and Marshawn Lloyd (573 yards, 9 TDs at South Carolina) will get the carries. They have improved defensively up front with the additions of Bear Alexander (Georgia) and Jack Sullivan (Purdue). Nine starters on defense return so they should be better. How much the better is the difference between simply reaching the Over in this win total (which I think they will) and making a Playoff run.
Washington Huskies (9.5)
Washington brings back a group of key players behind an offense that averaged 39.7 points per game last season. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will try to follow up a 4,641-yard, 31-touchdown season. Standout receivers Rome Odunze (1,145 yards, 7 TDs) and Jalen McMillan (1,098 yards, 9 TDs) are coming off big 2022 seasons. Ja’lynn Polk and Cameron Davis will look to make bigger contributions after strong seasons. They were pretty average defensively, allowing 25.8 points per game, but have made a few additions up front and back. Even a marginal improvement will make this team a playoff contender. That trip to USC will be huge in determining who wins the conference and stays alive for a playoff spot, but it’s all about win totals and I like them to get to 10 wins.
Oregon Ducks (9.5)
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Dan Lanning had a great debut season in Eugene, finishing 10-3. They, like Washington, are recovering most of the key pieces of an excellent offense (38.8 points per game). Bo Nix returns after a 3,593-yard, 27-TD season, and he has plenty of weapons to attack defenses. Bucky Irving, Kris Hutson and Troy Franklin join Troy’s transfer Tez Johnson. They were “just okay” on defense, but there’s reason to believe that with Lanning in charge they should improve a bit. I don’t like that their four toughest games come after their bye week, or that only two of them are at home. I changed my mind on this win total a couple of times, but eventually settled on wins under 9.5.
Utah Utes (8.5)
The back-to-back defending PAC-12 champs are a tough nut to crack. They were on par with Oregon and Washington offensively (38.6 ppg) but notably better on defense (21.4 ppg allowed). However, they finished with an identical record (9-3) to Oregon and entered the PAC-12 title game via a tiebreaker over Washington 10-2. Much of his 2023 outlook depends on the state of Cam Rising’s knee, I’m loath to make a choice here. But his toughest three games in a four-week span after his bye have me leaning below 8.5 wins.
Oregon State Beavers (8.5)
Head coach Jonathan Smith has put together an improved record every year he’s been in Corvallis (excluding that silly 2020 COVID season), going from 2-10 in 2018 to last year’s 10-3 record. They put together a solid offense (32.2 ppg) with a top-20 defense (20.0 ppg allowed, 16 in FBS). Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei looks set to be the starting quarterback, with RB Damien Martinez (2022 PAC-12 Freshman OPOY) picking up the load in the running game. Only five starters return from that stellar defense, which will feature some new faces in the secondary. I like how the schedule is set up for them though, with UCLA, Utah and Washington all home and missing USC. I think there are nine wins here, give me the Over.
UCLA Bruins (8.5)
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Chip Kelly has gone from a potential Hot Seat situation in 2021 to back-to-back eight-win seasons. At first glance, he might look at the departure of quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet and think that an offense that averaged 39.2 points per game could take a step back. Then he can look at the schedule and see no Washington or Oregon and a manageable slate with no conferences. They are bringing a lot of experience to the front on both sides. Whoever the quarterback is (probably Kent State transfer Collin Schlee or true freshman Dante Moore) will benefit from a good line game, even if they look a little skinny at receiver. The schedule and 16 returning starters are enough for me, they give me over 8.5 wins.
Washington State Cougars (6.5)
This was the toughest of any win totals to pick from the conference. I’m really sure the Cougars will bowl. I’m not so sure they’ll get a seventh win. Cameron Ward is coming off a pretty strong season (3,231 yards 23 TDs) but they’ve changed the entire receiving pool. The top two running backs return, as do three starters in the O-Line. Defensively, they bring back five starters, highlighted by Brennan Jackson and Ron Stone up front. The secondary looks like an experienced unit but they are weak at linebacker. The schedule is favorable enough, without Utah or USC, to push me to take the Over. They should win at least two non-conference games and the back-end includes Arizona, Stanford, Colorado and Cal. Can they pull off an upset?
Stanford Cardinal (3.5)
I would say that no team has been more affected by the recent rule changes than Stanford. The transfer portal is basically a one-way ticket due to academic requirements, and the listing reflects that. They bring back six starters from a 3-9 team and have a new coach. Your defense will be awful and the offense appears to have a “slightly below average” ceiling. I’m interested to see if new HC Troy Taylor can build something here over time, given his strong track record. His Sacramento State teams put up a ton of points, and he had a good run as Utah’s OC. But he doesn’t have much to work with here right now. He takes bass.
Arizona State Solar Devils (4.5)
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2022 was a difficult year for the Sun Devils, on multiple fronts. Much of that is behind us, but it can still be a long way. Kenny Dillingham enters his debut season with fairly modest expectations, but he’s already made his mark in the recruiting process. I thought he was a smart hire and the right person for the job, but he looks like a team with a six-win ceiling in 2023. That being said, I like them to get to five wins. Keep an eye out for Elijhah Badger (866 yards, 7 TDs), an after-reception monster who will be on my list of top players to watch this year.
California Gold Bears (5.5)
This is one of the more confusing win totals on the list. Because I look at Cal, and I look at his schedule, and I look at those 5.5 wins, and I don’t get it. It just doesn’t ring. Justin Wilcox made my Hot Seat list for a reason: They haven’t been good, and I don’t see them winning enough games for him to continue. They miss Arizona and Colorado in conference play, which means they get all the greats. Jaydn Ott is a good running back (943 yards, 8 TDs) and I really like WR Jeremiah Hunter (965 yards, 5 TDs), but other than that, they don’t seem to have much. I think they’re under 5.5 wins and missing a bowl game for the fourth year in a row.
Arizona Wildcats (4.5)
The Wildcats enter the third year of Jedd Fisch with plenty of experience on offense and almost none on the defensive end. Among the eight returning offensive starters are QB Jayden De Laura (3,685 yards, 25 TDs), RB Michael Wiley (806 yards, 7 TDs), receivers Jacob Cowing (1,034 yards, 7 TDs) and Tetairoa McMillan (708 yards, 8 TDs). TD) . The defense, however, scares me if I’m an Arizona fan. Three new starters in the secondary and a new defensive line will need to adjust quickly. They will likely start 2-2, but will be underdogs in at least six of their last eight games. I’m in the Under.
Colorado Buffaloes (3.5)
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Colorado and new head coach Deion Sanders have grabbed more than their share of headlines this offseason. While I think it was a great signing, it still looks like it’s going to be a tough first year. All of the roster rotation has resulted in an improvement in skill positions. But it hasn’t resulted in much depth, particularly up front. If you’ve watched Kent State in recent years, you know they’ll play fast on offense. But whether “fast” will translate as “good” remains to be seen. I am confident that they will improve (low bar, I know) and be more competitive (-349 points difference in 2022), but I don’t see a fourth victory. Take the Under on this total win.
Eric Mulhair is the co-host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for USA Informing covering college football. You can follow him on Twitter for the latest information on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to discuss about college football.
